herbsinator said:

Top 20 defense my friend

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Oh… ya not really interested in geeking out on anything other than scoring defense as that’s really all I’ve talked about. There will be things a Butler defense does better than White’s such as pass defense, and I don’t care about getting into individual conversations for every stat. I haven’t got the time.

After yesterday I feel pretty confident about my prediction that Nebraska will fall out of the top 25 in scoring defense this year with the loss of DC White. Hoping we can stay 26-29 but I’m betting we will be in the 30s. Into the 40s and things could get bad for my season win total overs bet.

Season so far is going exactly how I thought, with Akron and Houston Christian being 40% of our stats so not a great indicator of who we are. Will happily come eat crow if Butler keeps us where White had us, I just don’t see it. 2-1 these next 3 games is what I’m seeing.

ShortSideOption said:

Oh… ya not really interested in geeking out on anything other than scoring defense as that’s really all I’ve talked about. There will be things a Butler defense does better than White’s such as pass defense, and I don’t care about getting into individual conversations for every stat. I haven’t got the time.

After yesterday I feel pretty confident about my prediction that Nebraska will fall out of the top 25 in scoring defense this year with the loss of DC White. Hoping we can stay 26-29 but I’m betting we will be in the 30s. Into the 40s and things could get bad for my season win total overs bet.

Season so far is going exactly how I thought, with Akron and Houston Christian being 40% of our stats so not a great indicator of who we are. Will happily come eat crow if Butler keeps us where White had us, I just don’t see it. 2-1 these next 3 games is what I’m seeing.

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Total counting stats are a bad comparison anyway because it doesn’t account for total number of drives. Nebraska is 24th in points per drive this year and finished 23rd last year. So not seeing a huge drop off. TW’s counting stats are always going to look better in comparison because we really focused on slowing games down on offense last year and ran the ball better.

ShortSideOption said:

Oh… ya not really interested in geeking out on anything other than scoring defense as that’s really all I’ve talked about. There will be things a Butler defense does better than White’s such as pass defense, and I don’t care about getting into individual conversations for every stat. I haven’t got the time.

After yesterday I feel pretty confident about my prediction that Nebraska will fall out of the top 25 in scoring defense this year with the loss of DC White. Hoping we can stay 26-29 but I’m betting we will be in the 30s. Into the 40s and things could get bad for my season win total overs bet.

Season so far is going exactly how I thought, with Akron and Houston Christian being 40% of our stats so not a great indicator of who we are. Will happily come eat crow if Butler keeps us where White had us, I just don’t see it. 2-1 these next 3 games is what I’m seeing.

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Butler is much better at adjusting week to week than Tony was. Butler is going to be a great DC.

ShortSideOption said:

Oh… ya not really interested in geeking out on anything other than scoring defense as that’s really all I’ve talked about. There will be things a Butler defense does better than White’s such as pass defense, and I don’t care about getting into individual conversations for every stat. I haven’t got the time.

After yesterday I feel pretty confident about my prediction that Nebraska will fall out of the top 25 in scoring defense this year with the loss of DC White. Hoping we can stay 26-29 but I’m betting we will be in the 30s. Into the 40s and things could get bad for my season win total overs bet.

Season so far is going exactly how I thought, with Akron and Houston Christian being 40% of our stats so not a great indicator of who we are. Will happily come eat crow if Butler keeps us where White had us, I just don’t see it. 2-1 these next 3 games is what I’m seeing.

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A lot of differences in this defense and the team in general that it’s hard to compare to last year. JoBu’s defense may end up being in the 30s or 40s in scoring defense, but our offense is averaging (despite their struggles) 42.5 pts a game. Which will come down some in B1G play, but we’re clearly better. So, one can make the argument that the defense may end up giving up more pts under JoBu, (I’m not 100% convinced of that as of now) but the team is better overall.

Special teams is keeping our defense out of unfavorable situations and the offense is scoring more points, should = more wins. I hope 🤞🏼

Also, OP should edit the thread title. We’re 22 in the FPI rankings now.

ShortSideOption said:

Oh… ya not really interested in geeking out on anything other than scoring defense as that’s really all I’ve talked about. There will be things a Butler defense does better than White’s such as pass defense, and I don’t care about getting into individual conversations for every stat. I haven’t got the time.

After yesterday I feel pretty confident about my prediction that Nebraska will fall out of the top 25 in scoring defense this year with the loss of DC White. Hoping we can stay 26-29 but I’m betting we will be in the 30s. Into the 40s and things could get bad for my season win total overs bet.

Season so far is going exactly how I thought, with Akron and Houston Christian being 40% of our stats so not a great indicator of who we are. Will happily come eat crow if Butler keeps us where White had us, I just don’t see it. 2-1 these next 3 games is what I’m seeing.

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To be clear is your view that White would have kept the defense in the Top 25 with the player turnover?

(Assuming our FSU transfers stayed)

HashtagGBR said:

Butler is much better at adjusting week to week than Tony was. Butler is going to be a great DC.

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I think Butler is going to be pretty good myself, but the glaring difference that makes comparing White’s ’24 defense and anything Butler’s crew manages today is a couple of studs in the middle.

Butler is doing if differently than Tony did last year, because he has no choice. Would be interesting to see what he’d dial up with those two in the lineup.

Chi7397 said:

To be clear is your view that White would have kept the defense in the Top 25 with the player turnover?

(Assuming our FSU transfers stayed)

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It's my view he would have. I guess the argument against is that his D strength was front to back so maybe the run D takes a step back and he's mid

Baron Winnebago said:

It's my view he would have. I guess the argument against is that his D strength was front to back so maybe the run D takes a step back and he's mid

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That’s what I would worry about - feels like the front 7 was taking a step back this year regardless.

Chi7397 said:

That’s what I would worry about - feels like the front 7 was taking a step back this year regardless.

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May have also factored in to TW and Pot Roast bailing.

We are missing Ty and Nash way more than we are missing Tony White imo. We obviously have had to commit more in the box to slow down the run game. It's feast or famine and is going to lead to some long runs when the first wave whiffs.

herbsinator said:

Total counting stats are a bad comparison anyway because it doesn’t account for total number of drives. Nebraska is 24th in points per drive this year and finished 23rd last year. So not seeing a huge drop off. TW’s counting stats are always going to look better in comparison because we really focused on slowing games down on offense last year and ran the ball better.

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See above post.

HashtagGBR said:

Butler is much better at adjusting week to week than Tony was. Butler is going to be a great DC.

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We will see... happy to come eat crow if he keeps us where White had us. If he does that, easily a 9 win season and more than likely 10. I just don't see it after what I've witnessed these first 5 games. I expect our defense to take a fall back with the offense and special teams being better.

V-Doub said:

A lot of differences in this defense and the team in general that it’s hard to compare to last year. JoBu’s defense may end up being in the 30s or 40s in scoring defense, but our offense is averaging (despite their struggles) 42.5 pts a game. Which will come down some in B1G play, but we’re clearly better. So, one can make the argument that the defense may end up giving up more pts under JoBu, (I’m not 100% convinced of that as of now) but the team is better overall.

Special teams is keeping our defense out of unfavorable situations and the offense is scoring more points, should = more wins. I hope 🤞🏼

Also, OP should edit the thread title. We’re 22 in the FPI rankings now.

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Absolutely... As I just posted above, in my season prediction I had offense and special teams being much better and our defense taking a step backwards. Everything I've seen so far lends that to be true. If Butler keeps us where White had us I expect a 9 win season minimum because of what you are stating. Our offense will score more than last year and our special teams is going to be light years better.

Even with me predicting a step backwards for our defense I had us winning more games than any season since 2016.

Chi7397 said:

To be clear is your view that White would have kept the defense in the Top 25 with the player turnover?

(Assuming our FSU transfers stayed)

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I do. I think White/Knighton would have kept a couple of the transfers that left and we would have had continuity at the coordinator spot with a better overall DC still here. White had us at 11th in scoring defense his first year, despite losing starters Ernest Hausmann and Myles Farmer, and a depth player like Stephon Wynn Jr to the portal. This while coming off a 2022 season where the scoring defense was 75th and he had to completely revamp things. Butler gets the luxury of taking over a defense that was 11th and 20th in consecutive years in that stat, but I believe he will fall into the 30s at minimum in 2025, hoping he stays out of the 40s.

Again, will be happy to come eat crow.

Tell_Sackett said:

We are missing Ty and Nash way more than we are missing Tony White imo. We obviously have had to commit more in the box to slow down the run game. It's feast or famine and is going to lead to some long runs when the first wave whiffs.

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Exactly. Can't lose starters to the NFL and then have your coordinator make a lateral move making you lose returning starters in your front 7. Tony White

I would argue that we aren't committing more to the box to stop the run... go watch Underwoods touchdown run, we have 4 guys in there and 7 in coverage. Butler is more concerned about stopping the pass, which is one of the multiple reasons I think his scoring defense will continue to struggle as we move further away from the Akron and Houston Christian games being a majority of our stats.

ShortSideOption said:

I do. I think White/Knighton would have kept a couple of the transfers that left and we would have had continuity at the coordinator spot with a better overall DC still here. White had us at 11th in scoring defense his first year, despite losing starters Ernest Hausmann and Myles Farmer, and a depth player like Stephon Wynn Jr to the portal. This while coming off a 2022 season where the scoring defense was 75th and he had to completely revamp things. Butler gets the luxury of taking over a defense that was 11th and 20th in consecutive years in that stat, but I believe he will fall into the 30s at minimum in 2025, hoping he stays out of the 40s.

Again, will be happy to come eat crow.

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There’s not really a way to eat crow on this though given the turnover in players - I mean yes I guess if we stay in the Top 25 you’d have to but it seems pretty likely to me we were stepping back this year.

Florida State is currently in the mid-40s for scoring defense so it’s not like White is a guaranteed top 25 defense - how are you so confident in his theoretical results here in light of his current results at FSU?

Chi7397 said:

There’s not really a way to eat crow on this though given the turnover in players - I mean yes I guess if we stay in the Top 25 you’d have to but it seems pretty likely to me we were stepping back this year.

Florida State is currently in the mid-40s for scoring defense so it’s not like White is a guaranteed top 25 defense - how are you so confident in his theoretical results here in light of his current results at FSU?

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I mean Tony White lost starters Garrett Nelson, Colton Feist, Ochaun Mathis, Caleb Tannor, Ernest Hausmann, Chris Kolarevic, and Myles Farmer his first year not to mention key reserves on the DL like Devin Drew and Stephon Wynn. How we are talking about Robinson and Nash is exactly how everyone was talking about the loss of many of those guys in 2023 and if White could just be a little better we should be in good shape. He went to 11th from 75th.

I don't really care how people do outside of Lincoln once they leave as a comparable. What if Tony White is just a good DC in Lincoln but awful in Tallahassee? That'd be fine with me, wouldn't have to worry about losing him. Same goes for players, Gbayor would have been #2 in returning tackles for us, do we just not want him back because he's barely playing at UNC unless they are playing a bad team? Jimari Butler is barely playing for LSU but I promise I would welcome him here with open arms, doesn't mean he's not good anymore even though while he wore scarlet and cream he was good here.

People trying to make a case against Tony White using stats elsewhere and not while he was here seems a bit off in my opinion, but I appreciate the sentiment.

ShortSideOption said:

I mean Tony White lost starters Garrett Nelson, Colton Feist, Ochaun Mathis, Caleb Tannor, Ernest Hausmann, Chris Kolarevic, and Myles Farmer his first year not to mention key reserves on the DL like Devin Drew and Stephon Wynn. How we are talking about Robinson and Nash is exactly how everyone was talking about the loss of many of those guys in 2023 and if White could just be a little better we should be in good shape. He went to 11th from 75th.

I don't really care how people do outside of Lincoln once they leave as a comparable. What if Tony White is just a good DC in Lincoln but awful in Tallahassee? That'd be fine with me, wouldn't have to worry about losing him. Same goes for players, Gbayor would have been #2 in returning tackles for us, do we just not want him back because he's barely playing at UNC unless they are playing a bad team? Jimari Butler is barely playing for LSU but I promise I would welcome him here with open arms, doesn't mean he's not good anymore even though while he wore scarlet and cream he was good here.

People trying to make a case against Tony White using stats elsewhere and not while he was here seems a bit off in my opinion, but I appreciate the sentiment.

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Tony White was a good DC here. He couldn't stop the pass for shit but that is what it is. My main talking point is that Tony White had Ty Robinson who should have been 1st team all conference last year. 2023 Nash also had a case for 1st or 2nd team all conference. John Butler doesn't have the interior game wrecker that White had. Ty Robinson ate up 2 offensive lineman on almost every play/same for Nash. That allowed the linebackers and safeties to play close to the line and free most of the time. I think to this point, Butler has been more impressive in overall defense given that he has a very undersized D-Line compared to what White inherited.

MaxHuskers34 said:

Tony White was a good DC here. He couldn't stop the pass for shit but that is what it is. My main talking point is that Tony White had Ty Robinson who should have been 1st team all conference last year. 2023 Nash also had a case for 1st or 2nd team all conference. John Butler doesn't have the interior game wrecker that White had. Ty Robinson ate up 2 offensive lineman on almost every play/same for Nash. That allowed the linebackers and safeties to play close to the line and free most of the time. I think to this point, Butler has been more impressive in overall defense given that he has a very undersized D-Line compared to what White inherited.

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Ty Robinson and Nash were studs... just like Garrett Nelson, Ernest Hausmann, Ochaun Mathis, and Caleb Tannor were in other areas that we lost with White that I heard would be hard to replace. To your point about them being able to stop the run, I also don't agree with what Nebraska did in the portal on the DL. We went smaller and quicker instead of grabbing an elite run stopper if RVP or Jeudy weren't going to be ready considering what we lost. I've been stating this all offseason to anyone that would listen and even called it in my Michigan preview, with what Nebraska did whether that was Rhule, Butler, or Stewart making the call is going to bite us big time when we get into the meat of our schedule coming up. We have to guess defensively and even if we are right 90% of the time we will get gashed and lose games.

I still see 8-4 which is progress so that's what I care about. I just am shocked how many people are saying White isn't a big loss when he had two top 25 scoring defenses in the only two years here and we replaced him with a guy that has one year of Defensive Coordinator experience in P5 football that was over a decade ago and he was in the 60s for scoring defense. Lots of faith being put into a guy by a lot of people who are just chalking up us being worse because we lost our 2 DTs even though White lost his edge rushers and ILBs and managed to almost get us in the top10.

The Athletic has NU #22 this week.