Herbie said:

Yes his 6.8 YPA just showcases he is a skilled passer and can dissect a defense deep

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Your assertion that he can't dissect a defense because of that YPA average is ignorant and dismisses nuance:

1. Nebraska had 17 drops of passes that went 20 yards or more. They also had 3 interceptions that receivers literally just handed to smaller DBs.

2. Neyor and Lloyd were the only true deep threats. Neyor wasnt reliable because of his hands and toughness. Lloyd was easy to defend because he was a one trick pony - basically ran go routes non stop.

3. Is every QB's YPA average totally about the QB? Receivers still have to make plays after the catch. Husker receivers making dudes miss after the catch have been few and far between out side of Toure and Palmer the last 4 seasons. Barney is the only player on the 2024 team who could make someone miss in space.

I do think the season will hinge on Raiola's development. But I'm also a lot more comfortable with the weapons around him than I have been in years.

And nobody thought Banks and Neyor were below average more than me going into 2024. Key, Hunter, and Barney give Nebraska a much more talented top 3 pass catchers than Banks, Neyor, and a freshman Barney.

Tsakoi said:

I read through this whole thing and still haven't seen anybody's sack.

What a let down.

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Cornicator said:

ESPN isn't travelling for Gameday anymore, starting in the 2025 season. I'm sure they will amend that rule for at least 1 or 2 SEC games and the playoffs.

But they have cut millions from the budget for that show and that means it will be studio only with a reduced on-air cast.

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This isnt true. Gameday will be the same as always

Cornicator said:

ESPN isn't travelling for Gameday anymore, starting in the 2025 season. I'm sure they will amend that rule for at least 1 or 2 SEC games and the playoffs.

But they have cut millions from the budget for that show and that means it will be studio only with a reduced on-air cast.

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Wow, they are actually ceding the game day environment to Big Noon Kickoff? They might as well raise the white flag at ESPN.

Edit... Nevermind. False report

Cornicator said:

If Nebraska loses at Minnesota, it won't be by "10+." If Nebraska loses that game it will be a loss the same way Nebraska always loses to Cockeye, Minnesota, or Illinois - a one score or less loss with plenty of chances to win in the 4th quarter.

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Of course, I hope we win but we've been housed in Minnesota a couple times in the past 5 or 6 years. Maybe it's my FDS kicking in. We'll get pounded a couple times on the road this year minimum... if recent history is any guide. And by recent history, I mean most of our lifetimes. Pick your poison.

I'm less optimistic going into this year than last. Hopefully that means good things are to come.

Edit... 2017 and 2019 are apparently burned into my memory.

Tell_Sackett said:

Of course, I hope we win but we've been housed in Minnesota a couple times in the past 5 or 6 years. Maybe it's my FDS kicking in. We'll get pounded a couple times on the road this year minimum... if recent history is any guide. And by recent history, I mean most of our lifetimes. Pick your poison.

I'm less optimistic going into this year than last. Hopefully that means good things are to come.

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The only time Nebraska got "housed" by Minnesota was in 2019 when Nebraska was terrible and Minnesota had a legit top 10 team. I can say a few things are certain right now about the differences between Nebraska and Minnesota going into 2025 as opposed to the 2019 season:

1. Minnesota joins Purdue as the ONLY Big Ten teams that don't know who will start at QB. Sounds like the former back up at Georgia Tech is going to take over for the Gophers.

2. Anyone can be skeptical about Nebraska Football. But I would also argue Nebraska is in a LOT better spot going into 2025 than they were in 2019 with Scott Frost.

3. Minnesota returned 19 starters going into 2021 including a 5 offensive linemen. The Gophers will have 4 new offensive linemen starters in 2025.


Your notion that Nebraska will lose at Minnesota isn't a bad one at all. But I think the losing by double digits or getting "housed," is far from likely though.

Cincy - W
Akron - W
Houston BAPTIST W i will not recognize LIB universalism
Michigan - W (matt rhule signature win. "we're back" turned up to 11
Michigan State - W
Maryland - W (pantsing)
Minnesota - L (call the hotline type of result)
Northwestern - W
USC - W (home cooking)
UCLA - L (ugliest game of the year)
Penn State - L
Cockeye - W

9-3 - pelini curse shatters into a thousand pieces and remnants are found in cornfields throughout Cockeye
Bowl win over Ole Miss
1st team All big ten on both sides of the ball

Rhule flirts with tennessee in offseason. Neither fanbase happy

I think the Michigan State game is the most interesting game on the docket. They are an absolute enigma.

Cornicator said:

I'm not sure Dylan Raiola coming out and tossing 10 TD passes vs. Cincy, Akron, and Houston Christian is going to tell us much about the season.

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True...BUT, we've seen in the past where the 1st game is oftentimes indicative of how the season will go the last 10-15 years.

I also gave your post a like because two things can be true at once. For whatever reason we seem to mirror that 1st game pretty consistently the last few years.

Cinci - W
Akron - W
HCU - W
Michigan - L
MSU - W
Maryland - W
Minnesota - W
Northwestern - W
USC - W
UCLA - W
PSU - W
Cockeye - W

Lotta people scared of UCLA in here and I'm really not sure why

If you want to discuss wins and losses, I think you need to first predict where Nebraska must finish from an efficiency stand point. Nebraska has been in the 100s or lower Nationally for special teams efficiency going back years. According to ESPN FPI, Nebraska finished last season with a top 50 offense, top 20 defense, and the 3th worst power 4 Special teams group in the country at 113th.

Now I don't think Nebraska will have a top 20 defense again, but I do think they can still get into the top 40. The offense should be improved, and should be able to reach the top 40. So what kind of improvement can we ask for from the special teams? Hell, I'm just asking for top half which is top 65.

Let's look at the teams from last season that finished top 40 offense, top 40 defense, and top 65 in special teams:

BYU
Texas A&M
Louisville
Bama
Tulane
SMU
Tennessee
Georgia
Oregon
Notre Dame


Here is a list of the teams that had Special Teams outside the top 65, but still won a championship or made the playoffs. Notice they all had a really dominant offense and good defense or vice versa:

Ole Miss- top 10 in both offense and defense
Ohio State - top 5 in both offense and defense
Arizona State - top 10 in offense, top 35 in defense
Texas - top 5 in defense, top 15 in offense
Indiana - top 5 offense, top 20 defense
Penn State - top 5 offense, top 5 defense
Clemson - top 10 offense, top 30 defense
Boise State - top 15 offense, top 40 defense - just God Awful schedule

Other 9 win or better teams with awful special teams:

- Mizzou - top 35 offense, top 25 defense
- Colorado - top 25 offense, top 30 defense
- Miami - top 5 offense, top 75 defense - just outscored a bunch of teams with awful defenses in the ACC.
- LSU - top 15 offense, top 40 defense

Other nuggets about these marks:

- SMU was the ONLY playoff team top 40 in Special Teams efficiency.
- However, every playoff team ranked behind SMU was top 10 in either offense or defense with the exception of Boise State which didn't really belong in the playoffs.


Teams with a porous defense and bad special teams can win games at the college level with dominant offense. Miami and Syracuse are great examples. Of course, you could just argue they play in the ACC.

A team with a great defense and great special teams can overcome a bad offense, but will never truly compete for a championship. Cockeye and Michigan were testaments to that reality in 2024.

But it is virtually impossible to be successful as a defensive minded football team with bad special teams and then be able to overcome even an average offense.

So what does this mean for the Huskers? Nebraska has to continue its positive climb offensively, avoid a major fall back on defense, but truly change its destiny on special teams.

I think if they can get into the top 40 range on offense, stay in the top 35 on defense, and make that climb into the top 65 on Special teams, then Nebraska will easily have a 9 win team minimum.

Cincy - W
Akron - W
Houston Baptist - W
Michigan - W (probably 60/40). I think this is an L on the road, but this is the payback game for 2021. Michigan's QB situation is NOT GOOD
Michigan State - W
Maryland - W
Minnesota - W (Replacing a ton on OL. RS FR QB)
Northwestern - W
USC - W (Probably 60/40 game, giving us the edge at home)
UCLA - W
Penn State - L (Think this is the only for sure L on the schedule right now)
Cockeye - L (We invent new ways to lose this one)

BIGSTICK67 said:

True...BUT, we've seen in the past where the 1st game is oftentimes indicative of how the season will go the last 10-15 years.

I also gave your post a like because two things can be true at once. For whatever reason we seem to mirror that 1st game pretty consistently the last few years.

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I think your memory and reality are in two different places.

KidsSeeGhosts said:

Michigan - W (probably 60/40). I think this is an L on the road, but this is the payback game for 2021. Michigan's QB situation is NOT GOOD

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Maybe I'm just ignorant, but I think UM's new QB is going to be a star.

Cornicator said:

Maybe I'm just ignorant, but I think UM's new QB is going to be a star.

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Going to be a star, I'd agree, will be a star in his 4th game, second road game, doubtful.

Cornicator said:

Maybe I'm just ignorant, but I think UM's new QB is going to be a star.

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Maybe eventually, but outside of a spring game flea flicker w/ 20s left in the game, he was 12 of 25 for 99 yards and 1 INT. Think that game against OU could be rough.

KidsSeeGhosts said:

Maybe eventually, but outside of a spring game flea flicker w/ 20s left in the game, he was 12 of 25 for 99 yards and 1 INT. Think that game against OU could be rough.

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His skill set isn't made a for a scrimmage where QBs wear a green jersey. He's Cam Newton without the flare for terrible clothing. His impact will be felt through his legs.

Cornicator said:

His skill set isn't made a for a scrimmage where QBs wear a green jersey. He's Cam Newton without the flare for terrible clothing. His impact will be felt through his legs.

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He's 40 lbs lighter.

My guess is his value add is mostly being able to complete deep shots, add a run threat of his own, and take some pressure off their base running game. Wouldn't be surprised to see him split time with Keene, especially if things get ugly against OU.

Cornicator said:

Maybe I'm just ignorant, but I think UM's new QB is going to be a star.

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Same. Week 2 against OU we will find out.

I see a lot of people chalking up USC as an automatic L. I don't get it. They were TERRIBLE on the road last year...lost to Maryland for Chrissakes. They lost 3-4 best skill position players to the portal. By time we play them, Lincoln Riley could be a dead man walking. I actually think it will be one of our easier games in the back-half of the schedule.

FWIW, I think we go 9-3. Losses to Minnesota, UCLA, and Pedo State. The MSU games scares me more than Michigan.